UFC Fight Night 11 Preview and Predictions: By Keith Shillan
9 crazy days of MMA continues this Wednesday when the UFC Fight Night 11 airs on Spike TV followed by the season premier of The Ultimate Fighter Season 6. Thursday has the finals of the Internation Fight League. Pat Miletich’s Quad City Silverbacks tries to three peat when they meet Renzo Gracie’s New York Pitbulls( No Michael Vick jokes). Then on Saturday the UFC returns on PPV with UFC 76. It has 3 blockbuster fights as Chuck “the Iceman” Liddell starts his comeback trail for the UFC Light Heavyweight title when he takes on the very tough “Dean of Mean” Keith Jardine. The top Light Heavyweight fighter in the world Maurico “Shogun” Rua enters the octagon for the first time, when he fight the fan favorite Forrest
Nate “the Rock” Quarry vs Pete “Drago” Sell
It has been nearly two years since we last seen TUF 1 alumni Nate Quarry. Nate started his UFC career with a bash. He won his first 3 fights all by KO/TKO. He looked to have been on a steady road to the UFC Middleweight title. At that time, the UFC Middleweight picture was a mess. The then champion, Rich Franklin had no real contender to face. So the UFC decided to throw the very new Nate Quarry at him.
Quarry’s last win in the UFC was a very quick TKO over Pete Sell. In the first, round of their matchup, Quarry landed a shot that dropped Sell and referee Cecil Peoples jumped in to stop the fight. It seemed though that Sell had recovered from the shot and was able to continue. This fight was a very controversial fight, which many fans (myself included) thought was stopped immaturely. Quarry will try to answer three questions with this fight. First, he can return from his past injury and be effective. Second, that he deserved the TKO win over Sell in the first fight. Third, that he deserved his title shot, and is a top fighter.
Pete Sell has redemption on his mind. He wants to show that he could have beaten Quarry the first time, if the fight wasn’t stopped early. He also wants to show that he belongs in the UFC. He has not been to impressive lately. First, he lost a unanimous decision to Travis Lutter on TUF 4. He would then get KO’d by Scott Smith. Finally he would then get smoked by Thales Leites, losing by unanimous decision.
The key to this fight for Quarry is to keep this fight standing and use his better striking. He may also want to use the clinch. Sell is a student under UFC Welterweight Champion Matt Serra, so he has a very good submission game. Sell does have heavy hands, but Quarry is the better striker. Look for Sell to try to take this fight to the ground. Though Quarry will probable have a lot of ring rust, I expect him to win a very close standup war. Quarry by unanimous decision.
Nate Diaz vs Junior Assuncao
Nate Diaz is very similar to his older brother Nick. They are charismatic, cocky, and tough. Nate became a big star during his run on TUF 5. His mouth talked a lot, and his fighting backed it up. During the show, he first won a tough fight over Rob Emerson, winning by decision. He then would go on to submit both Corey Hill and Gray Maynard. He would take on Manny Gamburyan for the season title. It seemed like Nate was having a tough time with Manny until Manny suffered a freak injury, that caused Nate to win the fight.
Nate has an awesome submission game. He is constantly looking for submissions while on his back. His striking is similar to his brother’s. It is very unorthodox. He uses small pitter pat shots that slowly adds up and damages his opponent. Assuncao is a BJJ expert with a UFC record of 1-1. He will be looking to take this fight to the ground and will be looking for a ground and pound submission or a submission. A win over Diaz would really help Assuncao propel his career in the UFC Lightweight rankings. However, I see Diaz damaging Assuncao on the feet and winning by decision.
Chris “ the Crippler” Leben vs Terry Martin
Leben started his UFC career with a bang. After his stint on the original season of TUF, he went on a 5 fight winning streak. He stopped three of those opponents by either TKO or submission. He would then hit a road block named Anderson Silva. Silva gave Leben a lesson in Muay Thai by knocking Leben out in only 49 seconds. Leben would then rebound with a KO over Jorge Santiago. He would then lose his last two fights. First being submitted Jason MacDonald and losing a unanimous decision to Kalib Starnes.
Leben has a very solid chin and loves to slug it out. He has very heavy hands and a very underrated submission game. He is in a desperate need for a win. A loss here would probable send Leben to the WEC.
Terry Martin career has been on the total opposite road then Leben. Martin started as a Light Heavyweight and lost his first two UFC fights. He would then move down to Middleweight and it has been all success since. He would first knockout out Jorge Rivera in only 14 seconds and then would knockout out Ivan Salaverry in the first round of their matchup, by a big slam. Martin has made himself a serious contender in the UFC. Martin has very heavy hands and a good wrestling. Look for this fight to be an absolute slugfest. Leben might have an advantage in the later rounds because Martin has gassed in the past. I however don’t expect this fight to go long. I see Martin winning by TKO in round one. I also expect him to call out the winner of Anderson Silva vs Rich Franklin.
Kenny “KenFlo” Florian vs Din “Dinyero” Thomas
I am very excited about the main event. It puts to top Lightweight contender against each other. Both fighters are very similar. Both are very well rounded fight games and really bad nicknames. However the winner here could possible be fighting BJ Penn for the UFC Lightweight title (If Sean Sherk is stripped for steroid use).
Kenny has really changed people’s opinions about him since his time on the Ultimate Fighter. Kenny was fighting at Middleweight on the show. He would be the smallest fighter in the house and it showed during the finals. Diego Sanchez overpowered the smaller Florian and ground and pounded Florian to a TKO win. Florian would then move to Lightweight and would achieve great success. Kenny would win his first three UFC lightweight fight, stopping all by either TKO or submissions. Kenny would be matched up against Sean Sherk for the vacant UFC Lightweight belt. Many (Myself included) didn’t think Kenny deserved the title shot and expect Sherk to easily beat Florian in the first round. Though Sherk won the fight failry easily, the fight went the entire 25 minutes. Kenny showed a great heart, strong cardio, and that he can take a beaten. Kenny would rebound from this lost with 2 submission victories, first over Dokonjonsuke Mishima and then Alvin Robinson.
Din Thomas has been a UFC Lightweight journey man for a while. He has many ups and downs over the years. Din would enter the UFC in June 2001. He lost by strikes to BJ Penn. He would bounce back from that lost with a win over Fabiano Iha. Din would then lose a decision to Caol Uno but win a decision over current UFC Welterweight Champion Matt Serra. Din would leave the UFC and fight in smaller organizations. Din seemed unfocused and struggled only going 3-3 in that span. Din would return to the UFC as a part of TUF 4. He would get a win over Mikey Burnett but would lose a close decision to Chris Lytle. Since the show, Din seemed like a top Lightweight contender again. He would enter this fight on a three straight UFC wins. He would beat Rich Clementi, Clay Guida, and Jeremy Stephens.
This fight is a extremely hard fight to pick. Both fighters seem to be on a roll right now. Both have awesome BJJ but I think the striking is what will make the difference. Din has faster hands and is better technically. Kenny has the better Muay Thai style. He uses great leg kicks and uses his razor elbows greatly. I have changed my mind many times on this fight. It could be an absolute war. I am taking Din in a razor close split decision.
Prelims:
Thiago Alves vs Kuniyoshi Hironake: Alves by split decision
Luke Cummo vs Edilberto Crocota: Cummo by 3rd KO
Leonard Garcia vs Cole Miller: Garcia by decision
Gray Maynard vs JoeVeres: Maynard by 1rd TKO
Dustin Hazelett vs Jonathan Goulet: Goulet by decision
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